tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-39401948796307229582024-03-05T07:27:11.338+00:00Caspian IntelligenceNews, opinion and analysis, from Istanbul to Almaty and from Moscow to Tehran.Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.comBlogger94125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-35941488963563159032012-06-15T05:29:00.000+01:002012-06-15T05:29:01.036+01:00Natural Gas Europe - The BTE Pipeline Blast: The Implications of Sabotage
Below is my latest article for Natural Gas Europe - original here.
At the end of May, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline carrying gas from Azerbaijan to Turkey blew up in the Turkish section. Full supplies were suspended until 11 June, whilst repair work was carried out on the line. The extent of the damage and the reluctance of Turkish officials to confirm the cause have led to widespread Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-61948517705311511712012-06-09T19:31:00.000+01:002012-06-09T19:31:07.548+01:00Astana
I will be in Astana for the next week attending a conference. Any readers based out here that fancy meeting up, do let me know on ajackson320@gmail.comAlex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-82051774857559122412012-06-08T17:41:00.000+01:002012-06-08T17:41:19.552+01:00A Fragile Détente on Turkey’s Kurdish Issue
Turkish politics recently has
been like a rolling avalanche. Issues and controversies get picked up and never
dropped; instead, they get tangled up together until every part of political
life is made up of myriad, interlocking dramas.
For instance, the historic
negotiations between the AKP government and the main opposition CHP over
the Kurdish question cannot be disentangled from: the bad Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-84106043832472328362012-06-07T19:54:00.000+01:002012-06-07T19:54:54.191+01:00SCO Summit Promises Much, Delivers Little
The latest summit of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation has finished in
Beijing, with Afghanistan and regional security the main topics under
discussion. But as always with the SCO, watching the power relationships within
the Eurasian security bloc is as interesting as the summit itself.
The location of the summit rotates
each year but holding it in Beijing did give the Chinese an Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-66400584661959515432012-06-05T13:07:00.001+01:002012-06-05T13:07:44.835+01:00Fighting Escalates Between Armenia and Azerbaijan
The shaky ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been severely tested this week by some of the worst violence for years. The clashes are alarming in both scale and location, and further fighting is very possible.
On 4 June three Armenian soldiers were killed and six wounded by Azerbaijani forces in a clash allegedly sparked by an attempted infiltration of Armenian-held territory. Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com40tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-80117413581911663482012-06-01T15:34:00.002+01:002012-06-01T15:34:45.400+01:00Natural Gas Europe - Black Swans in the Black Sea? Romania’s Gas and the Southern Corridor
Below is my latest article for Natural Gas Europe. Original here.
The discovery of a major gasfield off Romania’s Black Sea coast back in February attracted a fair amount of attention. Preliminary estimates range from 42 to 84 billion cubic metres, according toOMV, which discovered the field along with ExxonMobil – a major find for Romania, and now the subject of Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-39767880652447092002012-05-31T15:22:00.002+01:002012-05-31T15:23:14.895+01:00Caspian Round-Up
Blogging has been
very light of late. Normal service set to resume shortly.
Some noteworthy stories which
I will be looking at in more detail in the days ahead:
a) Iran
and Azerbaijan have continued to spar after the Eurovision contest. Iran’s navy
is reportedly
carrying out exercises along the maritime border with Azerbaijan; the Iranians
have detained
two Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-5979974290870510532012-05-11T11:47:00.001+01:002012-05-11T11:47:52.905+01:00Georgia, Chechnya, And The Abkhazia 'Plot'
The blame game between Russia and
Georgia over shady bombings and sabotage plans has been rumbling on for years
now. In Abkhazia, ‘terrorist plotters’ are fingered as Georgian agents by
Moscow and Sukhumi, whilst Georgia regularly detains ‘Russian spies’ accused of
occasional bombings. Russia also occasionally accuses Tbilisi of
supporting Islamist militants in the North Caucasus. Unravelling Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-79124926899497618342012-04-27T13:12:00.001+01:002012-04-27T13:12:22.814+01:00Richard Morningstar in Baku - Reliable or Uninspired?
Seeking to fill a gap in the Baku
embassy which has hindered US policy in the region for months, the Obama
Administration has nominated
Richard Morningstar, longtime Caspian hand and current Special Envoy for
Eurasian Energy, as ambassador to Azerbaijan. He is likely to fare better in
the nomination process than his predecessor Matt Bryza.
Bryza was sent to Baku in
February 2011 after the Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-12247882310128725412012-04-25T11:57:00.000+01:002012-04-25T11:57:54.199+01:00Hungarian Surprise Exposes Crisis of Confidence in Nabucco
Below is my
latest article for Natural Gas Europe, original here:
In a surprise late-game announcement, Hungary has apparently
switched its support from Nabucco to
Gazprom’s rival South Stream pipeline, leaving the once-mighty
pipeline consortium looking weaker than ever. If, as rumoured, Hungary’s MOL is
pulling out of the project, it may – as analysts areAlex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-71173797718790202172012-04-12T10:31:00.003+01:002012-04-12T10:31:53.100+01:00Untangling Turkey’s Gas Pricing Knot
Leaked figures on the cost of Turkey’s gas imports, and sharp hikes in domestic electricity and gas prices, have refocused attention on the country’s energy strategy. With economic growth beginning to slow, the high price of imports may become an increasing burden. Analysis of the leaked figures suggest that, despite Turkey’s commercial stand-off with Iran, the real problem lies to the Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-2669875726271602412012-03-30T12:42:00.000+01:002012-03-30T12:42:27.145+01:00Bankers and Bombers in Kazakhstan
The Kazakh authorities claim to have foiled a major
terror plot linked to fugitive banker and persona
non grata Mukhtar Ablyazov. According to the Prosecutor General, Ablyazov
provided $25,000 to Alexander Pavlov, who has been on the run since 2009 and
who has served as Ablyazov’s personal bodyguard since 2005.
The money was allegedly
used to buy bombs which would be set off in a number of Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-6244562563871754592012-03-29T13:45:00.000+01:002012-03-29T13:45:18.567+01:00The Murky Story of Israel’s ‘Azerbaijan Airfields’
The Iran-Azerbaijan-Israel triangle is one of the foreign affairs subjects du jour, and most of it is fairly basic rehashing of the same points, but Mark Perry at Foreign Policy has come up with something eye-opening:
"The Israelis have bought an airfield," a senior administration official told me in early February, "and the airfield is called Azerbaijan."
According to US officials Perry spoke Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-39205739067491608792012-03-27T16:38:00.000+01:002012-03-27T16:38:41.595+01:00Natural Gas Europe -‘Nabucco West’ Heralds the End of the Southern Corridor VisionBelow is my latest article for Natural Gas Europe. Original available here.
Nabucco is dead – long live Nabucco. That seems to be the message of the revised concept for the huge, flawed Caspian pipeline. Although some changes were necessary given the challenges facing the project, the implications for the EU’s Southern Corridor strategy, and its broader policy goals in the region, are Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-22525679378759463572012-03-26T20:45:00.000+01:002012-03-26T20:45:00.749+01:00Evaluating Turkey’s ‘new’ Kurdish strategy
After clashes between the PKK and Turkish security forces left at least 13 dead, and amid growing concerns over the role of the Kurdish militants in Syria, the Turkish government’s new strategy towards the Kurds has been leaked to newspapers - but it is already coming under fire for being vague and uninspired.
The renewed fighting in Şırnak and Siirt comes on the heels of Nowruz celebrations Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-89913865494979371572012-03-19T13:23:00.000+00:002012-03-19T13:23:48.940+00:00Natural Gas Europe - Kiev and Ashgabat Try to Rekindle Long-Distance Relationship
Below is my latest article for Natural Gas Europe - original available here:Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov visited Ukraine in early March, in an apparent effort to rekindle their neglected long-distance relationship. Their shared interest in reducing Russian control over their gas exports and imports has given them common ground, but the hard realities of geography mean Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-27785088652943612012-03-17T19:18:00.000+00:002012-03-17T19:18:46.531+00:00'Civil war' talk causes a stir in GeorgiaNobody expected the campaigning for Georgia's upcoming parliamentary election to be polite or restrained, but the last few days suggest that the mud-slinging between President Saakashvili and the opposition is beginning in earnest.
On 15 March the three leaders of the opposition Georgian Dream coalition spoke at a meeting with foreign diplomats in Tbilisi. Irakli Alasania, head of the Free Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-74420592681642521782012-03-16T12:42:00.000+00:002012-03-16T12:42:33.194+00:00Azerbaijan and the Iran Crisis: Stuck in the MiddleAn article I wrote for CESRAN's Political Reflections magazine is now online here. The article discusses the current tension between Iran and Azerbaijan, looking at some underlying trends and factors.
The main takeaway is, essentially - this crisis isn't easy for Baku. As with Turkey, the much-cherished dream of a multi-vector foreign policy (or zero problems with neighbours, or strategicAlex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-55142603489267498302012-03-07T20:16:00.001+00:002012-03-14T13:19:23.014+00:00Natural Gas Europe - Analyzing Turkmenistan’s Gas Exports After the ElectionBelow is my latest article for Natural Gas Europe - original available here:
Last month Turkmenistan’s autocratic President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov won a near-unanimous ‘victory’ of 97%. His opponents were state-approved factory managers and local officials – there was never any doubt about the result.The lack of popular pressure for reforms or new policies means that few changes are expected Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-75657443571157301062012-03-06T23:30:00.000+00:002012-03-06T23:30:00.307+00:00Empty Words On Nagorno-KarabakhI have complained before about the vagueness of the OSCE Minsk Group, its emphasis on form over substance, but the mediators of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process – Russia, France and the US - seem to have outdone themselves this time in empty diplomatese:
“The Co-Chairs presented a plan for the sides to put into action the joint statement made by Presidents Medvedev, Aliyev, and Sargsian on Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-37551877440349649662012-03-01T16:43:00.000+00:002012-03-01T16:43:33.671+00:00Riots break out in northern Azerbaijan
Clashes between security forces and protesters have been reported in the northern Azerbaijani town of Quba. RFE/RL says that the fighting broke out when videos surfaced of local governor Rauf Habibov calling local residents "traitors" because they sold land to Azeris from other parts of the country. His comments were a response to whistleblowing allegations of graft against the governor.
HabibovAlex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-23357399641118692782012-03-01T12:35:00.000+00:002012-03-01T12:35:23.384+00:00Speculating on the Istanbul bombing
Istanbul was hit by an explosion this morning in which sixteen people, almost all of them police officers on a passing bus, were wounded (none of them seriously. Reports suggest that a remote-controlled bomb went off as the bus passed. The attack took place in Sütlüce, near the district office of the ruling AKP and the headquarters of one of Turkey’s largest business associations.
It’s still Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-86177659183647865022012-02-19T13:14:00.000+00:002012-02-19T13:14:00.230+00:00Ivanishvili 's underwhelming new teamGeorgian billionaire-turned-politician Bidzina Ivanishvili has unveiled the core team for his planned Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia party, which will contest this year's elections. It's a pretty underwhelming list.
The eighteen-member "Initiative group" includes a footballer, an actress, a physics and statistics teacher, a 1992 Olympics wrestling champion, some academicians, his own Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-61107555223226145832012-02-18T11:21:00.000+00:002012-02-18T11:21:00.946+00:00New Cyprus Drilling Round Raises Tensions with TurkeyMy latest post on Natural Gas Europe, about Cyprus's new drilling round and the risks of a Turkish retaliation. Original here:
A new oil and gas licencing round organised by the Republic of Cyprus is raising tensions with northern Cyprus and its Turkish backers. Although further drilling in the eastern Mediterranean will contribute to energy security in southern Europe, it may come at a high Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3940194879630722958.post-84261169103503153452012-02-13T19:41:00.000+00:002012-02-13T19:41:51.568+00:00Natural Gas Europe - Turkey Set to Join Black Sea LNG Project?
Below is my latest article for Natural Gas Europe, on Black Sea LNG projects. Original here:
Azerbaijan has temporarily halted a deal to sell liquefied natural gas to Ukraine, apparently owing to sudden interest by Turkey. Although the suspension is likely to be resolved, it reveals some interesting points for Black Sea energy security.
The two countries were due to sign a deal on liquefied Alex Jacksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10493482340817815865noreply@blogger.com4