The Caspian in 2012 - Kazakhstan

This is the last in my series of guarded predictions for the year ahead in the Caspian region.

I have left Kazakhstan until last for the simple reason that it is the trickiest to predict. The three biggest political and security issues in the country – the labour unrest in the west, the militant threat and the presidential succession – are complex and defy easy forecasts.

After the crackdown on strikers in Zhanaozen on December 16, which led to at least 16 deaths and sparked riots elsewhere, the situation appears to have stabilised. President Nazarbayev’s response to the violence has been fairly efficient: regret has been expressed for the loss of life, prosecutors have begun investigating the police who shot protestors, reconstruction work has been launched, and Mangistau provincial governor Krymbek Kusherbayev has been sacked.

Equally telling is who is not being investigated or sacked – the senior security officials who orchestrated the operation. This may be distasteful for those who want justice to be done, but in practical terms it probably won’t mean that much.  As Joshua Foust notes, “Even if the punishment to the police is limited to a few symbolic prosecutions, that will in all likelihood be enough to halt any attempts to convert this horrible tragedy into a regime-ending event.”

The Caspian in 2012 - Turkmenistan

From now until the end of the year, I will be running a series of posts offering some (guarded) predictions for 2012.

The biggest news in Turkmenistan is February’s presidential election – if you can call an entirely rigged and stage-managed vote ‘news’ at all. President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov faces fourteen opponents at the time of writing (summarised by Catherine Fitzpatrick), all of them state officials or managers from state-controlled industries. They include such political luminaries as Myrat Charykulyev, MD of the Mary-Ozot chemical company, and Rejep Bazarov, deputy mayor of Dashoguz region.

So, needless to say,  Berdimuhammedov will win another resounding mandate. None of the other candidates will probably break the 5% mark, although the sheer number of them which have been nominated suggests that the government is keen to give the president a lower and more ‘realistic’ share of the vote - last time, in 2007, he won 89.2% against five opponents, each of which got an average of 2.2%.

The Caspian in 2012 - Armenia

From now until the end of the year, I will be running a series of posts offering some (guarded) predictions for 2012.

For Armenia 2012 will be dominated by parliamentary elections in May, the first since a disputed poll in 2008 led to street protests in which at least eight demonstrators were killed by police.

President Serzh Sarkisian’s Republican Party of Armenia, which heads the ruling coalition, will probably win another parliamentary majority. But it is likely to be significantly reduced by a number of factors, leaving the country’s political landscape in flux after a period of relative stability.

The Caspian in 2012 - Turkey

From now until the end of the year, I will be running a series of posts offering some (guarded) predictions for 2012.

2011 was, on balance, a good year for Turkey. Despite the challenges posed by the Arab Spring, and the demise of the ‘zero problems with neighbours’ policy, Turkey has made huge strides in building itself as a regional power. At home the economy has been solid; the AKP won a resounding third term, solidifying political stability; and the army has been confined to barracks. 2012 is not likely to be so successful.

In 2012 the biggest foreign-policy challenges will remain Syria and Iran. A total collapse into chaos in Syria, or direct clashes on the border, could prompt Ankara into mounting a limited military intervention (under humanitarian auspices, probably).