Turkey's CHP: The aftermath

The failure of the main opposition party, the secular CHP, to hit a 30% target set by its new leader has provoked a growing storm of intraparty criticism, according to the media. Despite the fact that the party gained only 25% of the vote, CHP boss Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has put on a brave face, pointing out that he CHP is the only party to have increased its number of parliamentary seats in the election. True enough, but that has everything to do with constituency boundaries and very little to do with popularity. He is clear, though, that the number of votes is “not sufficient”.

Turkish Election - Notes from the Field Part 3

Election day was peacefuland fairly relaxed in much of Istanbul. The relaxed attitude of many locals and the absence of election paraphernalia in many parts of the city belied the turnout, which in Istanbul was an impressive 81% (for the full election results including turnout, see Hurriyet’s excellent interactive map). In many of the shops and stalls in the city’s commercial areas, an informal straw poll revealed quiet but committed support for the AKP.

Although most people were not flag-waving acolytes of the ruling party, and many thought that opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu had done a good job in modernizing the secular CHP, for them there was no arguing with the AKP’s track record over the last nine years. Bread-and-butter issues, namely the economy and Prime Minister Erdoğan’s vision to modernise Istanbul’s infrastructure, were at the forefront of their concerns. The issues which most columnists and analysts fret about – foreign policy; the AKP’s perceived slide towards authoritarianism; attacks on press freedom; and the government’s failure to solve the Kurdish issue – were marginal.

The CHP seemed to receive a stronger showing among young people concerned by the AKP’s growing religious conservatism. One international relations student at Istanbul University described herself as a pious Muslim, but one who disagreed strongly with the AKP’s efforts to “give people no choice if they are religious, cover themselves with headscarves [or not].” She said that her and most of her friends had voted for the CHP.

The CHP's campaign office

In the late afternoon I popped into the CHP’s Istanbul office, a shiny modern block which stands out in a tired neighbourhood on the European side near the Bosphorus Bridge. The building’s front is an enormous image of Kılıçdaroğlu looking suitably serious. Inside, the CHP team, many of them sharply dressed and in their late twenties, ran an operation which was sleek but lacked a certain buzz. A press room on the fourth floor was barely half-full and the staffers in the lobby seemed to be at something of a loose end.

This is not a definitive assessment, and the offices may have been packed to the rafters earlier in the day, but an hour before the polls closed the CHP headquarters did not look like the nerve centre of a winning party. Questions are now being asked about Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership, which I will cover in a subsequent post.

Turkish Election - Notes from the Field Part 2

The results of Sunday's election were more or less expected, but still held a few surprises. Everybody anticipated that the ruling AKP would sweep to victory - the only question was whether it would win enough seats to send a new constitution to a referendum, or whether it could create a new constitution unilaterally. Many expected that the nationalist MHP would struggle to muster the 10% needed to enter Parliament after a string of sex-tape scandals and defections. And the vigorous efforts of the AKP and the main opposition CHP to court Kurdish voters in the south-east was expected to damage the chances of candidates backed by the mainly Kurdish BDP.

In the event, most predictions were off the mark. The AKP won another major victory, securing 50%, an increase of 4% from 2007. But dueto new constituency boundaries, it fell just short of the 330 seats needed to send a new constitution to a referendum.

Turkish Election - Notes from the Field Part I

Istanbul may be sweltering under an oppressive, muggy heat, but the political climate in the city seems much calmer. A stroll around some of the Old City's central public spaces today revealed a surprising degree of indifference to Sunday's election, despite the vote's importance for the country's future and as a test of confidence in the ruling AK Party.

Down by Galata Bridge, some of the main parties had set up campaign stands in the shadow of the New Mosque. The AKP, the opposition CHP, and the smaller Democratic Left Party (DSP) and Felicity Party (SP) all had campaign stands out.

Turkish Election Round-Up - June 8th

Syria crisis raises questions for Turkish government

The intensifying conflict in Syria is now becoming an issue for Turkey, as hundreds of civilians from northern Syrian towns flee to Turkey to avoid an army crackdown. Harsh reprisals are expected in Jisr al-Shughour, after the Assad regime claimed that 120 soldiers had been killed by ‘armed gangs’ and ordered elite military units towards the town.

Ankara has pledged that it will not “close its doors” to Syrian refugees, and Turkish ambulances are ferrying wounded civilians across the borders. However Prime Miniser Erdoğan has been uncharacteristically restrained: at a press conference he said that "We wish Syria to be more tolerant to civilians and (further) the reform steps [Assad] has already taken, as soon as possible in a more convincing way." 

Turkish Election Round-Up – June 7th

With just a few days to go before the general election on June 12, Turkish politics is heating up. The tone on all sides is getting increasingly vitriolic. Conspiracies and ungrounded accusations are rife. Prime Minister Erdoğan, in particular, is in a pugnacious mood. 

With so many new developments, and so many bold statements coming from the main parties, I’ll be providing an election round-up for the next few days of some key issues and interesting side stories. I will also be in Istanbul from Thursday to get a close-up view of events.