Natural Gas Europe - The BTE Pipeline Blast: The Implications of Sabotage

Below is my latest article for Natural Gas Europe - original here.


At the end of May, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline carrying gas from Azerbaijan to Turkey blew up in the Turkish section. Full supplies were suspended until 11 June, whilst repair work was carried out on the line. The extent of the damage and the reluctance of Turkish officials to confirm the cause have led to widespread speculation that Kurdish militants were responsible.


If this is the case it underlines the ongoing security threats to gas supplies to Turkey, and highlights the risks which new pipelines to bring Caspian gas to Europe may face. Although Ankara has emphasised the importance of securing critical energy infrastructure, pipelines remain extremely vulnerable. Whilst the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) remains active, providing perfect security will remain impossible.


Information about the BTE blast, which took place on 29 May in or near the city of Kars, remains extremely scarce.  The route of the BTE pipeline runs through Turkey’s northeast and eastern regions, a little outside the PKK’s normal operating area of southeastern Turkey but certainly not out of their reach. A 2008 attack on the BTC oil pipeline took place in Refahiye, which is significantly west of Kars and also out of the PKK’s usual operating area.

Fighting Escalates Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

The shaky ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been severely tested this week by some of the worst violence for years. The clashes are alarming in both scale and location, and further fighting is very possible.

On 4 June three Armenian soldiers were killed and six wounded by Azerbaijani forces in a clash allegedly sparked by an attempted infiltration of Armenian-held territory. Azerbaijan, however, has claimed that the incident was a "provocation attempt" by Armenian forces. This was followed by news on 5 June that five Azeri soldiers were killed by what the Defence Ministry in Baku called Armenian "saboteurs".

This is one of the worst clashes in some time. Usually losses are confined to one side, and tend to be as a result of brief artillery duels, bursts of machinegun fire, or snipers. Whatever the truth of the 'incursions', the information available suggests that both sides attempted to seize positions held by the other at different points.

Richard Morningstar in Baku - Reliable or Uninspired?

Seeking to fill a gap in the Baku embassy which has hindered US policy in the region for months, the Obama Administration has nominated Richard Morningstar, longtime Caspian hand and current Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy, as ambassador to Azerbaijan. He is likely to fare better in the nomination process than his predecessor Matt Bryza.

Bryza was sent to Baku in February 2011 after the White House gave him a recess appointment, a temporary fix to circumvent congressional opposition from Senators representing constituencies with large Armenian-American populations (Bryza is regularly accused of being too close to Azerbaijan and Turkey, and correspondingly biased against Armenia). His appointment ended in December, and he has since taken up the think-tank and conference circuit.

Charge D’Affaires Adam Sterling has been minding the shop in the absence of an ambassador. This is becoming the usual state of affairs – since Obama took office, the embassy has been run by a lower-ranking diplomat for the better part of two years. The perceived slight has provoked consternation in Azerbaijan, which was used to being assiduously courted by the US under the Bush Administration.

The Murky Story of Israel’s ‘Azerbaijan Airfields’

The Iran-Azerbaijan-Israel triangle is one of the foreign affairs subjects du jour, and most of it is fairly basic rehashing of the same points, but Mark Perry at Foreign Policy has come up with something eye-opening:

"The Israelis have bought an airfield," a senior administration official told me in early February, "and the airfield is called Azerbaijan."

According to US officials Perry spoke to, Israel has a quiet and informal agreement to base its aircraft at disused Azerbaijani airfields in the case of an attack on Iran. Although they would take off from Israel, the challenges posed by fuelling such a long mission means that having a handy nearby airbase to return to – such as Azerbaijan – would make things a lot easier.

Azerbaijan and the Iran Crisis: Stuck in the Middle

An article I wrote for CESRAN's Political Reflections magazine is now online here. The article discusses the current tension between Iran and Azerbaijan, looking at some underlying trends and factors. 


The main takeaway is, essentially - this crisis isn't easy for Baku. As with Turkey, the much-cherished dream of a multi-vector foreign policy (or zero problems with neighbours, or strategic balance, or whatever you want to call it) is fine in theory but comes under great strain when local geopolitics doesn't go your way. Maintaining that balance requires astute statecraft, compromise, and more often than not a good deal of diplomatic insincerity.

Empty Words On Nagorno-Karabakh

I have complained before about the vagueness of the OSCE Minsk Group, its emphasis on form over substance, but the mediators of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process – Russia, France and the US - seem to have outdone themselves this time in empty diplomatese:

“The Co-Chairs presented a plan for the sides to put into action the joint statement made by Presidents Medvedev, Aliyev, and Sargsian on January 23 in Sochi.  Building on the two Presidents' joint commitment to accelerate reaching agreement on the Basic Principles, the Co-Chairs proposed steps to assist the sides in furthering work on the framework for a comprehensive peace settlement.”

Riots break out in northern Azerbaijan

Clashes between security forces and protesters have been reported in the northern Azerbaijani town of Quba. RFE/RL says that the fighting broke out when videos surfaced of local governor Rauf Habibov calling local residents "traitors" because they sold land to Azeris from other parts of the country. His comments were a response to whistleblowing allegations of graft against the governor.

Habibov met with protesters but refused to step down, and large crowds gathered and began clashing with security forces who responded with tear gas and water cannon. At least four people have been injured and the governor's house apparently burnt. RIA Novosti has the number of demonstrators at 10,000 although this seems inflated - footage and other reports suggest a few hundred, which seems more likely given that the population of the town is estimated at just 38,000 (stats available here).

Natural Gas Europe - Turkey Set to Join Black Sea LNG Project?

Below is my latest article for Natural Gas Europe, on Black Sea LNG projects. Original here:


Azerbaijan has temporarily halted a deal to sell liquefied natural gas to Ukraine, apparently owing to sudden interest by Turkey. Although the suspension is likely to be resolved, it reveals some interesting points for Black Sea energy security.


The two countries were due to sign a deal on liquefied gas transport across the Black Sea at the World Economic Forum in Davos, after a preliminary agreement was made in September.


The initial quantity was set at 5bcm per year, but by the end of the year Ukraine had decided to triple this to 15bcm: a dedicated LNG terminal, costing $1 billion, was due to be constructed in Ukraine by the Spanish firm Socoin to process the shipments. The LNG shipments, intended to start by 2014, would have helped Kiev to escape its politically and commercially punishing dependence on Russian gas. The project seemed to be ready to launch, and was discussed by Presidents Ilham Aliev and Viktor Yanukoych as late as 26th January.

France, Turkey, and the Caucasus

The French Senate’s decision to ratify a bill criminalising denial of the Armenian genocide has already provoked a stinging response from Turkey. ‘Permanent sanctions’ are now on the cards, and in a capital display of petty politics, the mayor of Ankara has proposed renaming Paris Street, where the French embassy is located, to ‘Algeria Street’.

The expected freezing of ties between Paris and Ankara will have major ramifications for Turkey-EU ties and for the situation in the Middle East. It will also be another nail in the coffin of the Turkey-Armenia thaw, since neither government will now feel in the mood to compromise on the ‘historical dimension’ which was one of the protocols restoring diplomatic ties. That said, the eulogies for the rapprochement were read a long time ago so this shouldn’t be overstated.

New interview with News.az

Below the text of my most recent interview with Azerbaijan's News.az. Original interview here.

What can be Azerbaijan's role in global security as a new UN Security Council non-permanent member?

As well as ‘non-traditional’ threats like countering terrorism and tackling the proliferation of drugs and weapons, Azerbaijan’s geostrategic location makes it important for specific security issues. Firstly, there is the avoidance of armed conflict – in other words, preventing a new war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Secondly, acting as an increasingly important link in the transport corridor for NATO supplies to and from Afghanistan. This will become increasingly important as the war there begins to end, particularly if Russia restricts transit over its territory. This is less relevant to the Un Security Council but may still be important.

Thirdly, Azerbaijan is an extremely important state with regard to the crisis in Iran. As a neighbouring state Azerbaijan has a strong interest in avoiding both a nuclear-armed Iran and a war between Israel/the US and Iran. Baku is likely to be very active in the Security Council in assisting efforts to defuse the current crisis.

Terror plot in Baku: an Iranian connection?

Last month, I pondered whether the tension between Azerbaijan and Iran that had lasted through much of 2011 was finally ending. Ali Hasanov’s visit to Tehran, and the mutual protestations of respect and non-interference in each other’s affairs, seemed to suggest a truce in the war of words between the two.

But now this: the Azerbaijani National Security Ministry has announced it foiled a plot to assassinate foreign citizens (possibly diplomats) in Baku, supported and coordinated by the Iranian intelligence services.

Low expectations for new Karabakh summit

After a seven-month gap, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia are set to meet again on 23-24 January to discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Once again, they will do so under the auspices of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev; once again, they will almost certainly fail to make any progress.

The last meeting between the two presidents was in June, in the Russian city of Kazan. There were high hopes in advance, with the OSCE Minsk Group (co-chaired by Russia, France and the US, tasked with mediating the peace process) warning that if the two sides failed to make progress on agreeing to the ‘Basic Principles’, the peace blueprint would be scrapped and a new one produced.

The Caspian in 2012 - Azerbaijan

From now until the end of the year, I will be running a series of posts offering some (guarded) predictions for 2012.

The Azerbaijani government has enjoyed a pretty good 2011, with solid economic growth, no changes on the political front and some small but symbolic foreign policy victories, winning the Eurovision Song Contest and (more importantly) securing a temporary seat on the UN Security Council for 2012 and 2013. Although relations with Iran have been testy, and Karabakh still smoulders, this is nothing new.

In energy, the scramble to choose a pipeline route to Europe for Azerbaijan’s gas may have energy analysts and companies in a spin, but whatever route is picked, Baku wins – it has fully emerged as a critical player in regional energy politics.

Interviews with Trend news agency, Azerbaijan

Below are two interviews I've recently given to Azerbaijan's Trend News Agency.


South-Eastern Route has more chances to deliver Azerbaijani gas to Europe

Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 6 / Trend A.Badalova/

The South-Eastern Route (SEEP) has more chances to be chosen by Shah Deniz consortium to transport Azerbaijani gas to the European market, political risk analyst at Menas Associates in London, focusing on Caspian energy and political issues Alexander Jackson said.

A truce in the Baku-Tehran cold war

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran has been tense for years, but things got especially difficult this year. Border shootings, Iranian warnings of revolution to the north, protests by ethnic Azeris in Iran, and the recent murder of an anti-Iranian journalist in Baku have driven the relationship to a low ebb.

It now seems that both sides have realised things have gone too far and are keen to patch up the damage: to that end, Azerbaijan’s Presidential Administration Chief Ali Hasanov flew to Tehran recently. Hasanov announced that the neighbours have come to an agreement on non-interference and mutual understanding. This was diplomatic boilerplate, but Hasanov’s comments to the media were remarkably direct, given how euphemistic both sides usually are.

“If you respect my values, I will respect you," he said. "If you do not interfere in my domestic affairs, I will not interfere either. . . We oppose the artificial introduction of any sects, religious groups, as well as various political, ideological, spiritual currents in Azerbaijan. They aim to create anarchy in Azerbaijan under the guise of democracy. We stop and will stop this."

He said that neither state had hostile propaganda towards the other at the state level. Iranian clerics may make an anti-Azerbaijan statement, but Azerbaijani historians might make anti-Iranian statements too. He also expressed support for the Iranian political system and made it clear that the same should apply to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan’s communication minister has also got involved, saying that the two states would work towards improving the protocols on cross-border broadcasting. This reflects a longstanding Azeri complaint that pro-Iranian propaganda, spreading support for hardline Islam, is beamed into southern Azerbaijan. Iran also complains that broadcasts promoting separatism among its ethnic Azeris are transmitted from across the border, although less loudly.

Hasanov’s visit is fairly significant, much more than the usual protocol-heavy trips. The substance of his comments is that Baku and Tehran have explicitly agreed an end to their recent cold war, most of which was, in any case, out of the hands of the upper echelons of government.

It remains to be seen whether the truce will hold, but in this neighbourhood and at this time, both of them need all the friends they can get.

Ambassador Bryza on his way out?

Observers could be forgiven for thinking the long-running saga over Matt Bryza’s tenure as US ambassador to Azerbaijan had finished.

The seasoned Caucasus hand has been in the ambassador’s residence since February, after President Obama bypassed a block on his appointment which was imposed by two pro-Armenian Senators (Barbara Boxer  (D-CA) and Robert Menendez (D-NJ) questioned whether Bryza’s close links to Turkish and Azerbaijani officials compromised his judgment). Now, the appointment is back in the news, and the possibility has been raised that Bryza will be dragged back from Baku.

New publications

I've realised that my paper on 'Next Steps In The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict' from earlier this year has been published on the new website of Caucasus International, available at: http://caucasusinternational.org/article/4

My piece on Turkish-Iranian relations, for the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy's 'Azerbaijan In The World', is also now online, at: http://ada.edu.az/biweekly/issues/vol4no22/20111201041158825.html

Saakashvili pushes ‘United Caucasus’ dream again

Critics have been comparing Georgia’s Mikheil Saakashvili to his arch-rival Vladimir Putin for a while now. Their authoritarian tendencies, colourful language, and fondness for switching political offices (speculative in Misha’s case, confirmed in Putin’s) make uncomfortable parallels between the Russian strongman and his Westernising nemesis.

There may be another reference to add to the list: both like espousing fanciful and unwanted integration projects in which they would (naturally) take the lead. Putin has his Eurasian Union concept, likely to be a cornerstone of his third presidential term, and Saakashvili has his own, provincial version: the United Caucasus.

Karabakh snipers, a microcosm of the conflict

One of the signal failures of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process has been an inability to persuade the belligerents to withdraw snipers from the front line.

This relatively small step – which would leave untouched the vast numbers of infantry, heavy machine guns, mortars and artillery along the Line of Contact (LoC) – would cost little and would indicate at least some commitment to the peace process. But neither side has been willing to pull back snipers and, if anything, have boosted the capabilities of their sharpshooters.

Did the US just give up on Nabucco?

The US government has never championed the Nabucco project as much as Europe, for obvious reasons – unlike Caspian oil pipelines which Washington lobbied for extensively back in the 1990s, the US will receive no direct benefit from huge quantities of Caspian gas being piped to central Europe.

But the US has remained a heavyweight player in the debate, and American diplomats have been very useful to Brussels in leaning on Turkey, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to get things moving.

Now, with the choice of pipeline project being weighed up in Baku by the Shah Deniz consortium which will supply the first tranche of gas, Washington’s top Caspian energy specialist seems to have just delivered a major blow to the EU’s favoured project.