A truce in the Baku-Tehran cold war

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran has been tense for years, but things got especially difficult this year. Border shootings, Iranian warnings of revolution to the north, protests by ethnic Azeris in Iran, and the recent murder of an anti-Iranian journalist in Baku have driven the relationship to a low ebb.

It now seems that both sides have realised things have gone too far and are keen to patch up the damage: to that end, Azerbaijan’s Presidential Administration Chief Ali Hasanov flew to Tehran recently. Hasanov announced that the neighbours have come to an agreement on non-interference and mutual understanding. This was diplomatic boilerplate, but Hasanov’s comments to the media were remarkably direct, given how euphemistic both sides usually are.

“If you respect my values, I will respect you," he said. "If you do not interfere in my domestic affairs, I will not interfere either. . . We oppose the artificial introduction of any sects, religious groups, as well as various political, ideological, spiritual currents in Azerbaijan. They aim to create anarchy in Azerbaijan under the guise of democracy. We stop and will stop this."

He said that neither state had hostile propaganda towards the other at the state level. Iranian clerics may make an anti-Azerbaijan statement, but Azerbaijani historians might make anti-Iranian statements too. He also expressed support for the Iranian political system and made it clear that the same should apply to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan’s communication minister has also got involved, saying that the two states would work towards improving the protocols on cross-border broadcasting. This reflects a longstanding Azeri complaint that pro-Iranian propaganda, spreading support for hardline Islam, is beamed into southern Azerbaijan. Iran also complains that broadcasts promoting separatism among its ethnic Azeris are transmitted from across the border, although less loudly.

Hasanov’s visit is fairly significant, much more than the usual protocol-heavy trips. The substance of his comments is that Baku and Tehran have explicitly agreed an end to their recent cold war, most of which was, in any case, out of the hands of the upper echelons of government.

It remains to be seen whether the truce will hold, but in this neighbourhood and at this time, both of them need all the friends they can get.

Upcoming Kazakh reshuffle paves the way for Nazarbayev’s succession

This is pretty serious news:

Kazakh Prime Minister Karim Massimov will probably leave his post following the creation of a new government, Kazakh president's adviser Yermukamet Yertysbayev told Kazakh republican newspaper Liter.

Speculation has been swirling about the presidential succession for months, and it now seems we are getting a clear signal: Yertysbayev is known as the “president’s nightingale” for his role in cautiously communicating Nazarbayev’s intentions, so his pronouncements carry a lot of weight.

Ambassador Bryza on his way out?

Observers could be forgiven for thinking the long-running saga over Matt Bryza’s tenure as US ambassador to Azerbaijan had finished.

The seasoned Caucasus hand has been in the ambassador’s residence since February, after President Obama bypassed a block on his appointment which was imposed by two pro-Armenian Senators (Barbara Boxer  (D-CA) and Robert Menendez (D-NJ) questioned whether Bryza’s close links to Turkish and Azerbaijani officials compromised his judgment). Now, the appointment is back in the news, and the possibility has been raised that Bryza will be dragged back from Baku.

Natural Gas Europe: China Undercuts Russia and Europe with New Turkmen Gas Deal

From now on I'll be writing regular pieces for Natural Gas Europe, the go-to site for news and analysis on European gas issues, and will reblog them here.

A new gas deal between Turkmenistan and China suggests that Beijing is seeking to steal a march on both Russia and Europe for Turkmen gas supplies. Further signs of an eastward shift by Turkmenistan could have a profound impact on regional energy geopolitics, but there may be less to the latest news than meets the eye.

New publications

I've realised that my paper on 'Next Steps In The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict' from earlier this year has been published on the new website of Caucasus International, available at: http://caucasusinternational.org/article/4

My piece on Turkish-Iranian relations, for the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy's 'Azerbaijan In The World', is also now online, at: http://ada.edu.az/biweekly/issues/vol4no22/20111201041158825.html

Saakashvili pushes ‘United Caucasus’ dream again

Critics have been comparing Georgia’s Mikheil Saakashvili to his arch-rival Vladimir Putin for a while now. Their authoritarian tendencies, colourful language, and fondness for switching political offices (speculative in Misha’s case, confirmed in Putin’s) make uncomfortable parallels between the Russian strongman and his Westernising nemesis.

There may be another reference to add to the list: both like espousing fanciful and unwanted integration projects in which they would (naturally) take the lead. Putin has his Eurasian Union concept, likely to be a cornerstone of his third presidential term, and Saakashvili has his own, provincial version: the United Caucasus.

Parsing Iran's threat to Turkey

Iran's threat to bomb a NATO radar site in Turkey, in case of an attack by Israel or the US, doesn't seem to have gathered as much press attention as you might expect. Iranian rhetoric to "deal a firm blow" against Israel and the US - or even Gulf Arab allies - is one thing, but for a senior Revolutionary Guards official to threaten an attack on Turkish soil is a serious change in tone.

And yet the Turkish government has made no official response, which is rather surprising given Prime Minister Erdoğan's speedy and vocal denunciations of anyone else who would threaten Turkey's interests. According to columnist Lale Kemal, there are splits emerging within the Cabinet over Iran:

Some ministers, such as Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner Yıldız, reportedly ran out of patience during a Cabinet meeting where he complained about Iran, accusing the country of being unappreciative of Turkey’s gestures, and criticized [Foreign Minister] Davutoğlu over his handling of Iran. 

Such splits have yet to be made public (unsurprising, given the tight rein which the PM tends to keep his ministers on). Nonetheless such an open threat to Turkey - even if it was, in theory, directed at Washington and Tel Aviv - is surely causing concern in the establishment, particularly in the military.

The warning comes bundled up with the decline in Turkish-Iranian relations over Syria. It is, depending on your point of view, either a coded and specific warning to Ankara to stop backing the Syrian opposition, or a sign of general frustration with Turkey and part of a gradual return to perceiving Turkey as a threat (largely due to its decision to host NATO's missile shield).

Ankara's official silence on the matter suggests one of two things, again depending on your viewpoint. Firstly, that Turkey doesn't take the threat seriously in the slightest, and refuses to bother responding to a message which was intended for domestic consumption. Secondly, that the threat is being taken very seriously, and that alarm bells are ringing in Ankara as officials scramble to defuse tensions.

It's not an easy one to read, but it may mark something of a sea-change in relations.

UPDATE: Ankara has sent a formal protest note to Tehran in response to the threat, whilst Davutoğlu has expressed “unease” to his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Salehi, who said that the statement did not reflect official Iranian policy. A fairly mild reaction from Turkey, it must be said.