The Caspian in 2012 - Armenia

From now until the end of the year, I will be running a series of posts offering some (guarded) predictions for 2012.

For Armenia 2012 will be dominated by parliamentary elections in May, the first since a disputed poll in 2008 led to street protests in which at least eight demonstrators were killed by police.

President Serzh Sarkisian’s Republican Party of Armenia, which heads the ruling coalition, will probably win another parliamentary majority. But it is likely to be significantly reduced by a number of factors, leaving the country’s political landscape in flux after a period of relative stability.

The Caspian in 2012 - Turkey

From now until the end of the year, I will be running a series of posts offering some (guarded) predictions for 2012.

2011 was, on balance, a good year for Turkey. Despite the challenges posed by the Arab Spring, and the demise of the ‘zero problems with neighbours’ policy, Turkey has made huge strides in building itself as a regional power. At home the economy has been solid; the AKP won a resounding third term, solidifying political stability; and the army has been confined to barracks. 2012 is not likely to be so successful.

In 2012 the biggest foreign-policy challenges will remain Syria and Iran. A total collapse into chaos in Syria, or direct clashes on the border, could prompt Ankara into mounting a limited military intervention (under humanitarian auspices, probably).

Natural Gas Europe - Iran’s Caspian Discovery Could Change the Regional Gas Game

Below is my latest article for Natural Gas Europe.

Iran’s recent announcement that it has found a huge new gas field in the Caspian has been touted as a major event, which will “will change the energy and political balance around the Caspian Sea”, according to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. With estimated reserves of 1.4 trillion cubic metres of natural gas and 8 billion barrels of oil, the find is undoubtedly significant, but perhaps not for the reasons which Iran means.

Khamenei arrests his own son for 'assassination plot'

Divisions within the Iranian elite are nothing new, but this story takes things to another level:

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hoseyni Khamenei has ordered the arrest of a number of senior members of the Revolutionary Guards he suspects of planning to assassinate him. . . Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei’s son and an ardent supporter of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was one of the officials that was arrested.

Politics, policy and the Turkish economy

On the surface, the signals coming from the Turkish economy are enough to make anyone in Europe envious. 8.2% growth in the third quarter; foreign direct investment between January and October up 84% year-on-year; exports at a historical high of $134 billion in the past year.

But every piece of good news is now accompanied by a warning that the economy is overheating and heading for a crash. Citigroup says (via the FT) that “the composition of growth remains grossly unbalanced”.

Natural Gas Europe: Risks and Opportunities of Shell's Turkey Deal

Below is my latest article for Natural Gas Europe.

As reported on 23rd November, Royal Dutch Shell signed a major deal with Turkey’s state energy firm TPAO to begin prospecting for gas and oil onshore in southeastern Turkey, and offshore in the southwest. The deal could have major implications for Turkey’s long-term energy security but carries its own risks.

Interviews with Trend news agency, Azerbaijan

Below are two interviews I've recently given to Azerbaijan's Trend News Agency.


South-Eastern Route has more chances to deliver Azerbaijani gas to Europe

Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 6 / Trend A.Badalova/

The South-Eastern Route (SEEP) has more chances to be chosen by Shah Deniz consortium to transport Azerbaijani gas to the European market, political risk analyst at Menas Associates in London, focusing on Caspian energy and political issues Alexander Jackson said.